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Chris Busby - icke trovärdig forskare?

CHRIS BUSBY - NOT TRUSTWORTHY RESEARCHER?
Nov 27, 2011: English translation of this article at the bottom, plus a new Youtube film and other new references.

Den kontroversiella kemisten Chris Busby är i Stockholm. En ny film har lagts ut på Youtube. En del av det som sägs där förtjänar allvarlig kritik.

filmen talar han om effekterna av kärnkraftskatastorferna i Fukushima. Han påstår att cesium angriper hjärtat och att ett stort antal barn i Japan nu kommer att drabbas av hjärtsvaghet. Detta är något som andra forskare avvisat.

Han antar att japanska regeringen medvetet sprider radioaktivitet över landet för att utplåna skillnaderna mellan dem som bor nära och dem som bor långt ifrån Fukushima. Sådana teorier brukar kallas konspirationsteorier, och det är mycket sällan som det finns någon grund i dem.

Busby, som alltså inte är läkare utan kemist, har tidigare gjort en del bra forskning på lågdosstrålning. Det är dock, enligt honom själv, många år sedan han blev godkänd för publicering i erkända vetenskapliga tidskrifter. Numera står han själv för publiceringen.

När man ser filmen blir man berörd. Han är övertygande, och det är lätt att tro att allt han säger är rätt. Även när man förstår att en del av vad han säger är fel så vill man gärna tro att mycket är rätt. Men han tycks ha en svaghet att dra långt gånga slutsatser, att överdriva. Det minskar trovärdigheten för allt han säger.

För ett år sedan, på ett möte i Stockholm, visade han hur bröstcancerincidensen i Sveriges kustlän hade ökat efter Tjernobyl-olyckan, mer än i inlandslänen. Han hade hittat officiell statistik på nätet. Men de årsserier han valde ut var egendomliga. Gotland var också bortglömt. Han hade heller inte tagit hänsyn till ev. introduktion av mammografiscreening av bröstcancer, eller utvidgning av screenade årgångar. Så gör inte en seriös forskare.

Busby ifrågasätts av många forskare, men han är till stort stöd för miljörörelserna. Han låter väldigt trovärdig i filmen, och det är svårt för en lekman att förstå att han inte är trovärdig. Detta blir ett problem för miljörörelserna, som heller inte blir trovärdiga då de använder hans argument.

Letter Busby to Eckerman 15th August 2010  (added 4th Oct 2013)

Chris Busby i Stockholm 19.9.2011 (Chris Busby in Stockholm Sept 19, 2011)

Christopher Busby i engelska Wikipedia  (Christopher Busby in English Wikipedia)

Chris Busby som förföljd  (Chris Busby as pursued)

Chris Busby kritiseras  (Chris Busby criticized)

Post-Fukushima 'anti-radiation' pills condemned by scientists  George Monbiot, The Guardioan, Nov 21, 2011

Christopher Busby's wild claims hurt green movement and Green party  George Monbiot, The Guardian Nov 22, 2011

Fallujah health effects, new U weapons  Nov 2011

Chris Busby turns on his attackers  Nov 26, 2011

The Under-Examined Story of Fallujah  Hannah Gurman, Antiwar.com Nov 26, 2011

Cancer, Infant Mortality and Birth Sex-Ration in Fallujah, Iraq 2005-2009  Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2010, 7(7), 2828-2837

Uranium and other contaminants in hair from the parents of children with congenital anomalies in Fallujah, Iraq  Conflict and Health 2011, 5:15 

LÄS OCKSÅ

Oklar långtidsdödlighet av Bhopal- och Tjernobylkatastroferna  Om svårigheterna att göra god epidemiologi långt efteråt, speciellt för cancer. Ingrid Eckerman 9.5.2011 (Unclear long term mortality from the Bhopal and Chernobyl catastrophes. About the difficulties to make good quality epidemiology long time afterwards, specially for cancer.)

 alt

CHRIS BUSBY - NOT TRUSTWORTHY RESEARCHER?

The controversial chemist Chris Busby is in Stockholm. A new film is added to Youtube. Part of what is said there deserves serious criticism.

In the film, he talks about the effects of the nuclear catastrophes in Fukushima. He says that caesium affects the heart, and that a large amount of children in Japan now will be hit by heart failure. This is something that other scientists deny.

He presumes that the Japanese government consciously spreads radioactivity over the country to wipe out the difference between those who live close to and those who live far away from Fukushima. Such theories are usually called conspiracy theories, and very seldom, there is any basis of them.

Busby, who is not a medical doctor but a chemist, has earlier done some good research on low dose radiation. However, according to himself, it is many years ago that he was approved in peer reviewed scientific journals. Nowadays, he publishes his articles himself.

When one sees the film one is touched. He is convincing, and it is easy to believe that all he says is correct. Also when one understands that some of what he says is wrong, one prefers to believe that much is correct. But he seems to have a weakness for too far going conclusions, to exaggerate. This decreases the thrustworthiness of everything he says.

One year ago, at a meeting in Stockholm, he showed how the breast cancer incidence in the coast counties of Sweden had increased after the Chernobyl accident, more than in the inland counties. He had found official statistics on the net. But the annual series he had chosen were strange. Gotland (an island in the Baltic) was also forgotten. He had not adjusted for possible introduction of mammography screening of breast cancer, or expansion of screened classes. A serious researcher does not do so.  

Busby is questioned by many scientists, but he is of great support for the environment movements. He sounds very reliable in the film, and it is difficult for a layman to understand that he is not reliable. This creates a problem for the environment movements, which will not either be reliable when they use his arguments.

 

Länkat till intressant.

 

Attachments:
FileDescriptionFile size
Download this file (busbytoeckerman160810.pdf)Letter Busby to Eckerman Aug 16, 2010 34 kB
Download this file (cvbusby.pdf)Chris Busby CV 2013 258 kB
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Hej IngridArbetar jag i uppförsbacken "För otroligt för att vara sant"?I am using the assumption that that we can use less energy without impairing our lifestyle. 80% for transport, 90% for buildings, 30% for industry. Do you posses the influence to see if you could muster some scientists to have a look at my proposal? Biomass for food and energy can be found when we turn the trend of soil depletion together with intermittent power production? I have propositions for your other concerns as well! You can use this following statement of mine as a truth "We will see no seriousness for change until we discuss what backs our reserve currency". I started to take on this challenge when no one mentioned this after the meeting in Rio. Shame on the scientist for not seeing trough this scam of giving people false hopes to hide real intentions.
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Hej VisslarenHar härdarna smält igenom något ännu? Har treans tank för utbränt bränsle grävts fram?Har vi en redovisning publicerad och kontrollerad av allt radioaktivt material före och efter olyckan?Är Mr. Arnie Gundersen trovärdig när han beskriver "What they knew and when they knew it"?Ska vi se den seriösa forskar världen i det ljus som programmet kaliber tände över den verksamheten för cirka tio år sedan?Den seriösa forskar världens ansikte har flera gång visat oförmåga att hantera kunskaps bygget! Har du fördjupat dig i FLUOR? Den historien talar för sig själv när vi bedömer trovärdigheten av seriös forskning!Enda vägen till seriös forskning är att forskning får egna pengar. Vart vill du ha resurser av vårt överflöd, i forskning på riktigt eller hos manipulerande organisationer?Bosse
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See my comments to Richard Bramhall below.Ingrid
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(I don't understand why Chris's comments are not visible here. I get them by e-mail.)And on the subject of bad science you might like to consider the WHO Iraq congenital malformation study that was peer reviewed by several important sounding scientists from all over the place. Perhaps you might spend some time attacking them and leaving real scientists like me alone. See http://on.rt.com/brclmi Chris
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Continued. Don't forget that the article was written only in Swedish - which rather few people over the world reads. It was translated because Busby started to question on the net what I had written. So I thought it was better to translate so everyone could read by themselves. That's also why I publish the e-mails and letters from Busby here. Transparancy, everyone can judge by themselves.By the way, in his CV, I find nothing about training in physiology, biochemistry, biology, health, environmental medicine, statistics, epidemology, research methods etc that would benefit studies of this kind.
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The letter is now uploaded as an attachment to the article itself. It is not a report, describing the method, confounding factores etc. In the letter, Chris Busby himself admits the figures are not enough. So actually, Chris Busby and I agree with each others - more and better studies are needed if we want evidence. The article above is written two years ago. I don't know what all the fuss is about. If Busby had not started all over again to discuss it, it would have been forgotten. Because of this discussion, more people might found it when googling.
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Dear Dr. Eckerman,Busby has replied to you by email again, resending you a letter from 2010 in which he gave you the reanalysis you asked for. Inconveniently it’s a PDF and again it's too long for your 1000 character limit so I have posted it at http://www.llrc.org/epidemiology/subtopic/busbytoeckerman160810.pdf.I don't have the proposal he sent to Socialstyrelsen .regards
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Dear Chris Busby,No, I don't remember that you made reservations because of small numbers, not adjusting for confounding factors etc. Specially with this audience of laymen, you should have been extra careful of explaining epidemiology so the audience would not take you figures for more than a hypothesis that has to be proven. I understand that you cannot prove this hypothesis because you are not given the data. I suppose this is because of our ethical rules. Your project needs to be approved by an ethical committee. So far, I have not seen a report of your adjusted figures, and I have not seen the project plan that you sent to Socialstyrelsen .
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E-mail from Chris Busby Sept 30, 2013: Dear Ingrid EckermanYou were there when I showed these data and therefore you should remember that I said that the results supported the hypothesis but that small area data were needed to do the study. Socialstyrelsen refused to give the data and so did the Finland cancer register, although Hakulinen in Finland said they had found that there was an excess of cancer near the coast which they could not explain. We applied for money to do the study you are talking about and were turned down. We applied for the data and were turned down. Then you attack me. I think you need to apologise. Chrris Busby
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Dear Richard Bramhall,We still know nothing about the connections between breast cancer incidence in Sweden and the Chernobyl release. The figures presented by Chris Busby are not enough to prove a connection. There might be one, but evidence needs a much thorough study, using reliable epidemic and statistic methods. I don't think the anti-nuclear movement benefits from presenting badly designed studies as "truth". There will always be persons among the antagonists who advertises their doubts.